Concern growing about potential end-of-July severe weather outbreak

Literally one month ago Michigan was on the receiving end of one of the nastiest batches of thunderstorms we've had in quite some time, with several tornado touchdowns, one of which was strong, and which people are still recovering from.  The system that caused that outbreak began to show signs of being troublesome a week and a half before it happened.

I'm beginning to grow concerned that another system like that one may impact Michigan in the coming weeks, albeit I'm not yet sure to what degree.  Above is the GFS's supercell composite index prediction for the time frame of August 1st to 8PM on August 2nd.  So far, it doesn't look quite as strong as what menaced us last month yet, but it's approaching that point.  Several GFS runs thus far have introduced a disturbance around this time, but this run is by far the strongest in terms of severe potential for Michigan.

Since the GFS has shown run-to-run consistency in this feature for about two days now, I've increased my severe risk assessment to "Severe thunderstorms likely" for this time frame.  With that in mind, this feature has disappeared completely from this morning's run, so this could change drastically, but with the last two day's worth of runs suggesting something potentially big on the horizon, I'm not going to lower the flag based on one run's output.