Concerns again growing over potential severe weather Friday

Well, back and forth we go.  This is one of those situations that's going to be hard to size up right until crunch time. 

There are indications among several short term models that Michigan may in fact be under the gun for thunderstorms - and therefore SEVERE thunderstorms - on Friday afternoon, after all.

Upward Vertical Velocity, 4PM NAM run 07/15/15

The image above represents a forecast of upward vertical velocity - a.k.a. thunderstorm updrafts.  The timestamps put this into initiation somewhere around 8PM Friday evening.  The model appears to be predicting that some kind of disturbance, be it an outflow boundary from rain to the north, a lake breeze, or a miniature cold front generated by a shortwave trough is going to initiate thunderstorms in an eerily similar position to where they formed on June 22nd.  In fact, this model looks like it's predicting an outright carbon copy of that scenario. 

The NAM is painting the most ominous picture thus far.  Higher-resolution models such as the NAM32KM, 12KM and 4KM are putting the initiation in different places, some as far south and west as western Ontario.  This bodes a bit better for Michigan dodging another miniature tornado outbreak, however the fact that the other models are predicting the same phenomenon does NOT.  This would indicate that it is unlikely that this picture is being painted by a glitch in a given model, and it makes my spider senses tingle quite a bit.  Don't get me wrong - a model glitch could still be at work here. These models are all derived from the NAM and thus might share similar anomalies.  However, I'm leaning more toward severe weather in Michigan on Friday than I was two days ago when I was just looking at conditions, if that says anything.

Need I remind anyone of those conditions?

Supercell Composite, 4PM NAM run 07/15/15

Significant Tornado Potential, 4PM NAM run 07/15/15

I would be surprised if the SPC does not put out at least a nominal chance of severe weather for Michigan in their day 2 outlook tomorrow.  Honestly, I'd lean more toward a Slight Risk area.  Depending on clearer definition, it could go significantly higher.  Again, the setup is very familiar, if not quite as strong as what was being predicted for June 22nd.  Seeing the NAM place those storms where it does at that time however does make the hair on the back of my neck stand up a bit.