Thunderstorm outlook widget

In the upper right hand corner of this blog, you'll find an outlook regarding thunderstorms and severe weather probabilities in Michigan.  In the winter time, this will switch over to winter storm/heavy snow potential (barring the insane chance of a mid-November severe weather outbreak a la 2013, in which case I'd go back to the thunderstorm outlook).

Note that this outlook may or may not match with what the SPC puts out for their outlook.  I'll likely match any day 1 through 3 categorical risk values unless I strongly disagree with them.  Day 1 through 3 thunderstorm potential will always be displayed.  If one of those days has thunderstorm potential but others don't, those days will be skipped. The outlook will also reference upcoming potential severe weather events (4-10 days out) that I believe have a good chance of affecting the state. If there is no day 1 through 3 thunderstorm potential and nothing on the horizon that looks interesting, you'll see a smiley "no thunderstorms forecast" face instead of the outlook.  I'll do my best to update the image at least once per day, unless no changes are apparent in the forecast and no upcoming events are moving into the day 1-3 time frame.  The categories pretty much match what the SPC designates, though the wording will be a bit different:

• █ Thunderstorms possible - Exactly what it says; thunderstorms should be possible in any area highlighted in light green.  This includes a very small chance of a severe thunderstorm, as any time a thunderstorm forms, it can pick up steam given the right parameters.

• █ Isolated severe t-storms - Thunderstorms are possible, with a slightly higher chance of a thunderstorm crossing the severe threshold.  This means one or two thunderstorms out of ten to twenty have a chance of producing winds greater than 60mph, hail greater than 1 inch, or a tornado.

• █ Severe thunderstorms likely - The "Slight Risk" equivalent. Storms that form within or enter these areas will likely be severe in nature.  They shouldn't be potentially long lasting or intense, but some isolated and/or light damage is to be expected.

• █ Widespread severe possible - The "Enhanced Risk" equivalent. It's highly likely that storms will form in or move into highlighted areas and it's likely that they will be severe in nature. Widespread damage is not necessarily a sure thing, but it is possible, and general preparations should be made by people residing within these areas (i.e. have "power outage kit", plenty of non-perishable food, and bottled water ready).

I will not use the categories listed below unless the Storm Prediction Center releases them in their outlook: 

• █ Widespread severe likely - The "Moderate Risk" equivalent. Significant severe weather is almost a sure thing. Widespread damage to property is expected. Power outages and other resource strains are likely.  Emergency and utility crews are likely to be dispatched.  Rehearse emergency preparedness plans, restrict long distance travel unless traveling out of risk zone and make appropriate preparations for long-term power outages that may last several days.  Stay close to substantial shelter throughout the duration of the outlook.

• █ High risk of significant severe weather - The "High Risk" equivalent.  A major severe weather outbreak is expected or underway.  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  Consider keeping children home from school, and stay close to very substantial underground shelter.  Pay close attention to NWS-issued watches and warnings, and consider keeping a NOAA weather radio on hand at all times.  The types of severe hazards seen on high risk days include 80mph+ wind gusts, hail greater than 2" in diameter, and/or widespread EF2+ rated tornadoes, with EF4 and EF5 tornadoes possible. Significant widespread property damage is likely, and entire neighborhoods may be damaged or even completely destroyed. Do not travel, unless you plan to travel far away from the risk zone and are absolutely certain the timing of your travel will not coincide with the location of thunderstorms. If traveling, keep an emergency survival kit with you. If stranded by flood waters or structural damage such as trees or power lines on the road, stay with your vehicle until emergency crews arrive if possible. Keep up to date on weather by using mobile devices equipped with doppler radar applications such as RadarScope, as well as CMAS alerts. Carry a NOAA weather radio if possible. If a tornado or severe thunderstorm is approaching your vehicle, abandon it and move to the nearest substantial shelter available. More weather related fatalities occur on high risk days than usually occur on every other non-high-risk-day of the year.

I hope that I can do my part to help people understand what's coming and when to act.  These outlooks, I believe, would do people a lot more good if they knew where to find them and what they meant.