Severe outlook for Wednesday downgraded, more severe possible next week

Latest day 3 outlook from the SPC

Short range models are beginning to suggest that severe storms this Wednesday are looking less likely in Michigan.  A combination of cloud cover and remnants from previous day convection should temper instability a bit, and the wind profile doesn't look quite mean enough to cause trouble in the absence of serious instability.  This is due to the strong storm system moving further north, as I suggested last week could 86 severe thunderstorm likelihood in the state.

Supercell Composite Index for around 5PM August 5th, taken from 8am GFS run 07/27/15

Meanwhile, there may be a couple opportunities for severe storms to pop up in the state next week, as we continue our stormy pattern into August.  The GFS suggests that Southeast Michigan could house some very unstable air on August 3rd, and more highly unstable air could be present throughout the state between August 5th and August 7th.  Wind profiles are not too spectacular, but I still think it's enough to suggest the likelihood of potentially strong to severe thunderstorms.