Storms this afternoon most likely in the Detroit area southward

The SPC has revised their day 1 outlook to include a Marginal Risk for extreme southeast/southern Michigan and a Slight Risk for the middle Ohio Valley.  Looking at the simulated radar for this afternoon from several mid/short range models, the most likely place for storms to initiate are going to be along the Ohio border into Detroit.  These storms will have plenty of instability for fuel, but shear should be unidirectional, meaning the tornado threat should be low.  However, there may be very large hail and damaging winds associated with these storms.

SPC revised day 1 outlook

Storms predicted to initiate by 5PM according to the HRRR 12pm run

The NAM4KM is pretty much in agreement with the HRRR, however the timing is a bit different, with storms initiating a little bit later in the evening

The regular NAM is also in agreement with the timing/placement of these storms