The storm system that was on track to move through over the weekend looks as though it won't truly begin to affect us until Sunday night according to the latest NAM run. I'm still slightly concerned about the possibility of severe weather in Michigan with this one, but a couple things have lessened those concerns. The first is that this system is slowing down, which means that unless it significantly ramps back up on Monday, it's probably not going to have enough horsepower to drive major severe storms. My thinking right now is that we'll have plenty of instability available for big thunderstorms, but that the wind shear won't be strong enough to cause a significant severe weather event.
The other factor, as always, is timing. With the system slowing down like this, it will have to be timed just right to coincide with peak heating on Monday. It could do that, and if it does, there's likely going to be enough instability for one or two big storms, but outside of isolated severe I just don't see this one producing at this point in time.
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