Day 1, Day 2 Moderate Risks issued for most of MS Valley/Ohio Valley

The severe weather threat for our immediate western neighbors is increasing as I expected.

Day 1 Categorical Outlook

Tornado Probabilities

Hail probabilities.  The hatch marks represent a 10% or higher risk of hail > 2 inches in diameter.

Hatched area represents a 10% or greater risk of wind gusting to 65 kts or higher. The damaging winds are what I'd worry about the most with these storms.  The other hazards will be more as the storms initiate further north.  Once they get going, though, a true derecho could form, leading to hurricane force winds that can be just as bad as your average tornado, only spread over a much wider area.

A very nasty derecho-like situation is developing to our west and should thankfully skip our state. These types of storms will not be fun. Widespread hurricane force winds will be likely, and this categorical outlook could increase to high by the end of the day.  A few tornadoes will be possible, too, and I still wouldn't rule out a strong one.

By tomorrow, the problems move to our south/southwest.

Day 2 Categorical Outlook.  A slight risk that these storms may touch extreme southwest Michigan exists

Severe Hazard Probabilities

There is a chance of the threat level increasing on this one, as if a true progressive derecho forms, it should regain any strength it loses during the overnight hours as it moves southwest.  Extreme instability is categorized by this situation, with CAPE in excess of 5000 j/kg in some areas.

Even by Tuesday, widespread severe weather is going to be possible across the southeastern US.

Day 3 Categorical Outlook - Enhanced area represents a 30% risk of severe weather

I urge anyone who has friends or relatives in these areas to phone them and inform them of the nasty weather headed their way.  If you plan to be in these areas yourself, reconsider your plans; otherwise, take extraordinary precautions.  Preparations should include plenty of non-perishable food and stock piles of water on hand, along with other items necessary to deal with potentially long-lasting widespread power outages.  Emergency and utility workers in these areas may have their hands full in dealing with this storm's aftermath, so planning is of the utmost importance.