Monday, July 13, 2015

Thunderstorms in Michigan likely next week, too

There should be many opportunities for thunderstorms in the mitten state next week, and there's some indication that those storms may have potential to be severe.

Example Supercell Composite from this morning's model run.  There's lots of run-to-run spread regarding the timing and placement of these impulses, so nothing's set in stone, but there are indications that severe potential in Michigan next week could be above average to strong.
Long range models, specifically the GFS, are also beginning to hint that a powerful storm system may form in Canada next week.  These sub-1000mb closed lows are usually the biggest drivers of severe storms in our neck of the woods.  It's going to be a wait-and-see situation as to a) whether or not the storm forms, b) what regions of the country it's going to impact if it does.  What I can tell you is that the jet stream appears to be anchored across the northern US, which means that we're definitely in the potential target zone for any waves that develop.

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