Morning thunder moving through SE Michigan, questions remain on timing of afternoon thunder

The morning thunderstorm complex is almost out of the way, though it's still making it rain in parts of SE Michigan.

Those west of M53 are pretty much in the clear, which includes the Saginaw Bay.  I'm a little concerned about that mess of green just to the northwest of said area, as it appeared to show some hints of yellow earlier which is contrary to dissipation, but I don't think lightning is going to be a major concern with those particular remnants.  A brief shower or two might occur on the bay or even in Caseville should that mess hold together long enough.

As this complex is moving through more quickly than expected, the timing of this afternoon's storms is also likely to be a bit earlier.  Models are beginning to suggest storm initiation right around 5PM; that's peak heating time, folks.  I'm a little concerned that these storms might be a tad on the explosive side, and we might be looking at a couple tornado touchdowns along with some serious hail.  Damaging wind gusts are also likely.  The HRRR in particular is expecting 10m wind gusts of 60mph or more with these storms.

10 meter wind gust predictor from the 14z High Resolution Rapid Refresh model

Storms on a day like today are not going to be in all places at once, but they are going to pop up very quickly.  Don't go out on a boat.  Be careful out there if you're going near the water, and be prepared to duck and cover out of the path of lightning at a moment's notice.