Chances of severe storms appearing decent for the weekend

With what happens tonight finally coming into focus, the chances of weekend severe weather in Michigan are also starting to become more clear.

Day 2 outlook for Saturday

Day 3 outlook for Sunday

The SPC has released their day 2 and day 3 outlooks which include a Marginal and Slight risk for lower Michigan respectively.  Right now, the models seem to indicate possible overnight storms Saturday, with stronger afternoon storms on Sunday.  Wind shear remains unidirectional, so overall tornado threat is low, however a brief spin-up isn't out of the question, either.  Of biggest concern is going to be damaging wind and hail.  Instability is going to be very high.  The NAM is probably overestimating CAPE a bit at 3000-5000j/kg, but the other models are still predicting 2500-3000j/kg, which is more than enough for severe weather.  

The timing of storm initiation is going to be in considerable question right up until the end.  With that in mind, I feel that there's going to be enough unstable air in place to make storms wicked whenever they may form.  When you start seeing temps in the 90s with dewpoints in the 70s, thunderstorms can start generating their own weather patterns.