Thursday, July 30, 2015

Severe weather in Michigan possible Monday August 3rd

SCP index from last three consecutive GFS model runs, in order of appearance.  The model has predicted more favorable conditions for severe weather in Michigan with each run.
The last three consecutive GFS model runs have demonstrated likelihood for severe thunderstorm development in Michigan this coming Monday, with each successive run suggesting a more robust threat.  This leads me to believe that changing dynamics favor a possible severe weather event in Michigan, possibly even a widespread straight-line wind event.  It's too early to tell for sure, but late last night and this morning's runs especially are hinting at such a scenario.

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