Friday afternoon storms disappear from the forecast models once more

At this point I think it's wise just not to bother talking about this anymore until tomorrow. These models are just too hokey right now.

From DTX "Export Forecast Opinion" on the AFDBlog:

Low-level theta-e advection and moisture pooling along the front will enhance the
associated solenoidal forcing component along the instability gradient and this appears to be the
only existing forcing against a background of gradually rising heights. Waa will contribute to a
solid 800-900mb cap that that may be able to be overcome eventually, probably not until later in the
evening. Weak forcing and capping will support low coverage, if any, mainly after 21z.
Unidirectional wly wind field and marginal 0-6Km bulk shear would support individual cells or
perhaps clusters of multicells with potential for rear inflow jet development and severe hail given
2000 j/kg cape predominantly confined to the mid levels. At the moment, severe risk appears that it
will remain isolated in nature. Main story Friday will likely be heat with temps in the mid/upper
80s and dewpoints around 70 contributing to low/mid 90s heat indices. 

Interpreting that mumbo jumbo is a bit difficult, so here's an overview.  NWS Detroit still believes there's a marginal risk of severe storms popping up due to some very weak lift caused by the interaction of pools of very moist air against drier air.  The time line of this would be after 5PM during peak heating time.  Wind direction again appears unidirectional in forecast models, which would not support rotating updrafts, rather, linear/cluster based storm cells with a marginal threat for severe wind but a larger threat for severe hail - mainly due to the steep mid level lapse rates and high instability I talked about in earlier posts.

Me?  All bets are off at this point.  Run to run consistency is poor at best.  The NAM appears to be overestimating certain things given the line of storms which should move through in the morning, which should temper moisture/instability a bit. The SPC has not designated a marginal risk, and there's just not enough consistent data to say that they should've, other than that Michigan is Michigan and if something weird can happen with the weather, it usually will. My gut feeling now, after seeing everything that's come out in the last 24 hours, is that one or two counties between the Tri-Cities and the I-69 corridor will see a severe thunderstorm warning tomorrow.  This would warrant a Marginal Risk assignment.